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Video: Grading the Apple analysts on a scale of A to F

Philip Elmer-DeWitt — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 15:59:03 +0000

Two ways of seeing how well (or badly) the pros and amateurs predict Apple's earnings

Green = Amateurs, Yellow = Pros Source: Dediu, PED

We've been trying for several years to find the best way to show how much better the so-called amateur analysts (some of whom have since gone pro) are at estimating Apple's (AAPL) quarterly revenue and earnings than the Wall Street professionals who do it for the big MORE

Wall Street raises its Apple estimates, but not high enough

Philip Elmer-DeWitt — Sat, 28 Jan 2012 18:28:35 +0000

Apple's earnings grew 116% in Q1. So why is the Street is looking for 44% in Q2?

Click to enlarge. Source: Asymco.com

After Apple (AAPL) blew past everybody's expectations on Tuesday, reporting sales up more than 73% and earnings up nearly 116%, analysts up and down Wall Street rushed to revise their spreadsheets and issue new notes to clients. We got our hands on 39 of them -- plus a note MORE

Can Apple still deliver an earnings surprise?

Philip Elmer-DeWitt — Sun, 22 Jan 2012 19:38:38 +0000

The 18% gap between the Street's estimates and the independents' suggests that it can

Click to enlarge. Data: Company reports, Apple 2.0

Last fall, a Wall Street analyst who shall remain nameless suggested in a note to clients that the days of the big Apple (AAPL) earnings surprises may be over.

He was referring to the string of quarterly reports in which the company beat the Street's estimates by measures so wide MORE

The first 5-million Mac quarter?

Philip Elmer-DeWitt — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 19:28:14 +0000

33 of 46 analysts expect Apple to meet or beat that mark in its quarterly report next week

Click to enlarge.

One of the big computer news stories last quarter was the continued strength of Apple's (AAPL) Mac sales even as the rest of the PC industry was shrinking. (See Mac sales zigged as Windows PC sales sagged in Q4.)

How well did the Mac do? We put the question to our two MORE

iPad sales estimates for Q1 range from 11.7 to 19.5 million

Philip Elmer-DeWitt — Sat, 14 Jan 2012 19:57:28 +0000

The Street's consensus: 13.5 million. The indies are 10% more bullish

Click to enlarge. Source: Company reports; Apple 2.0

Everybody we've heard from expects Apple (AAPL) to report record iPad sales for the quarter that ended Dec. 31.

And why not? Tablets were a popular gift item this past holiday season. The iPad 2 didn't face much competition -- except perhaps from Amazon's (AMZN) Kindle Fire. And although there were rumors of MORE

How many iPhones did Apple sell last quarter?

Philip Elmer-DeWitt — Sun, 08 Jan 2012 13:17:07 +0000

Pros and amateurs both expect a blow-out. They're just haggling over the percentage

Click to enlarge. Source: Company reports; Apple 2.0

The most important metric for Apple (AAPL) in the quarter that ended eight days ago -- likely to account for more than half of the company's revenue for fiscal Q1 2012 -- is the number of iPhones it sold from Sep. 25 to Dec. 31.

We've polled nearly 40 Apple analysts -- MORE

Apple’s big miss: The analysts weigh in

Philip Elmer-DeWitt — Wed, 19 Oct 2011 12:37:32 +0000

They're calling it a "small hiccup," "black swan," "iBlip"and a "breather at altitude"

Apple's (AAPL) fourth quarter results were the first since 2002 that failed to beat the expectations of the analysts. A sampling of what they had to say about that:

Needham's Charlie Wolf: Not every quarter is a blowout. "The slowdown in iPhone sales in the second half of the September quarter in advance of the launch of iPhone 4S appeared to take some MORE

The analysts on Apple’s iBlip: A ‘hiccup,’ a ‘black swan,’ a ‘breather at altitude’

Philip Elmer-DeWitt — Wed, 19 Oct 2011 12:37:32 +0000

Most shrug it off as a transitional aberration. Several raised their price targets.

Apple's (AAPL) fourth quarter results were the first since at least 2004 that failed to beat the analysts' consensus. A sampling of what they had to say about that:

Needham's Charlie Wolf: Not every quarter is a blowout. "The slowdown in iPhone sales in the second half of the September quarter in advance of the launch of iPhone 4S appeared to take MORE

Apple to announce fourth quarter results on Oct. 18

Philip Elmer-DeWitt — Mon, 26 Sep 2011 21:05:59 +0000

Click here at 5 p.m. Eastern (2 p.m. Pacific) for Apple's (AAPL) webcast of the conference call with analysts. Thanks to setteb.it's Fabio M. Zambelli for the tip. Filed under: Apple 2.0

Apple and Wall Street: Six quarters of lousy estimates

Philip Elmer-DeWitt — Mon, 26 Sep 2011 11:19:56 +0000

For as long as we have been tracking them, the bloggers have trounced the pros

Click to enlarge. Sources: Thomson Financial, Apple 2.0, company reports

On Sunday, the day after Apple's (AAPL) fourth quarter of fiscal 2011 ended, we posted preliminary revenue and EPS estimates from both Wall Street's Apple analysts and a group of amateurs we've been tracking for a couple of years.

After we posted the chart, one reader who calls himself MORE

Apple and Wall Street: Six quarters of lousy estimates

Philip Elmer-DeWitt — Mon, 26 Sep 2011 11:19:56 +0000

For as long as we have been tracking them, the bloggers have trounced the pros

Click to enlarge. Source: Company reports, Thomson Financial, Apple 2.0

After we posted the chart, one reader who calls himself jmmxx MORE

Apple and Wall Street: Six quarters of lousy estimates

Philip Elmer-DeWitt — Mon, 26 Sep 2011 11:19:56 +0000

For as long as we have been tracking them, the bloggers have trounced the pros

Click to enlarge. Source: Company reports, Thomson Financial, Apple 2.0

After we posted the chart, one reader who calls himself jmmxx MORE

Apple’s Q4 2011: A tale of three wildly different estimates

Philip Elmer-DeWitt — Sun, 25 Sep 2011 21:18:29 +0000

Between the company, the Street and the amateur analysts, a range of $9.4 billion

Click to enlarge. Data: Company reports, Thomson Financial, Apple 2.0

Apple's (AAPL) fourth fiscal quarter of 2011 ended Saturday, and depending whose estimates you believe, it was either a ho-hum quarter or a record-smasher.

The chart at right shows the actual revenue and earnings per share for the previous 11 quarters -- Q1 2009 through Q3 2011. In MORE

Analysts scramble to raise their iPhone and iPad estimates

Philip Elmer-DeWitt — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 14:03:29 +0000

Hasty revisions three weeks before the end of Apple's last fiscal quarter of the year

It happens every three months. As the end of Apple's (AAPL) fiscal quarter approaches, the small army of analysts that cover the stock dusts off its spreadsheets, finds them overly conservative and starts issuing revisions. If history is any guide, the numbers will be revised again -- upward -- when the company reports its Q4 2011 MORE

Downgrade Apple from ‘neutral’ to ‘unfavorable’? Seriously?

Philip Elmer-DeWitt — Sun, 21 Aug 2011 11:48:58 +0000

If anyone has access to Channel Trend's latest report on Apple, I would love to see it (Update: Got it!)

Source: Channel Trend

On Saturday night, this headline flashed across one of the news feeds I use to follow the analysts who track Apple (AAPL):

"On August 20, 2011 Channel Trend Inc. downgraded APPLE INC.from NEUTRAL to UNFAVORABLE."

My first thought was "seriously?" My second was "tell me more."

I've seen some boneheaded advice MORE